Cycle Observatory
Compares today's price to what holders actually paid. High score = undervalued (good buy opportunity). Low score = overheated (risky to buy). This is the most important input — it drives most of the composite, especially near tops.
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Measures fear and forced selling — miners shutting down, long-term holders selling at a loss, spending at a loss across the network. High score = heavy capitulation (historically the best time to buy). Low score = market is comfortable.
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Tracks what whales (1k+ BTC), sharks (100-1k BTC), and smaller fish are doing. High score = big wallets are stacking. This is a supporting signal — it confirms value but can stay high even at tops.
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Uses cycle timing, profit distribution ratios, and long-term holder behavior to estimate whether we're closer to a bottom or a top. Helps catch late-cycle overheating that other pillars might miss.
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